Professional Documents
Culture Documents
160.00 149.70
T o ta l R e tu r n (% ) 140.00
Year-to-
120.00
100.00 92.33
80.00 70.54
Returns on
20.00 7.29
0.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
4.41
1
Year
1971-72
1973-74
1977-78
1990-91
1991-92
1969-70
1972-73
1974-75
1975-76
1976-77
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1970-71
sum of the
Decline 243.50 2.00 0.008 – 0.068 – 0.060
product of
each outcome
(return) and its RETURNS AND PROBABILITIES
associated
Economic Conditions Rate of Return (%) Probability Expected Rate of Return (%)
(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2) (3)
Growth 18.5 0.25 4.63
probability: Expansion
Stagnation
Decline
10.5
1.0
– 6.0
0.25
0.25
0.25
2.62
0.25
– 1.50
1.00 6.00