|



  
  

˜| 
˜      
˜  

Fuel Prices - Yesterday, Today, «
Tomorrow?

K



 mil originates from the chemical
decomposition of microorganisms that got
buried under geologic formations in the sea
millions of years ago.

„



 






 






 

 
-mil was a gift from
nature.
-It took millions of
years to produce
-When it¶s gone, it¶s
gone forever
ßefore the first oil well was dug in
Pennsylvania in 1859, Nature had
made about two trillion barrels of
i
 i oil and scattered it
unevenly around the world.

ßy 2006 we¶ve used up about 0.96

trillion. In other words we¶re near
the half-way point.

³Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World mil Shortage´, Kenneth S. Deffeyes

 pn oil well isn¶t like a car¶s fuel
tank.

„ With a car you can drive at

full speed until the moment
you run out of fuel.

„ That¶s because your tank is a

hollow cavity. The fuel fills
the bottom of the tank and
there¶s nothing preventing it
from being pumped out.
 ßut an oil well isn¶t a hollow
cavity.
„ It¶s a large deposit of stones or
sandstone sandwiched between
two layers of impervious rock.
The hollow spaces between the
stones or sand are filled with
thick and viscous oil.

„ p pipe is lowered into the

mixture of oil and stones or sand
and the oil is pumped up. X

„










 






 
 








 

 In order to extract the oil from an oil
field, a large number of wells are drilled.
 p

 
 






 i



 i 

 


 

p



 
 



 




 








 








 





ë





i




i 



  


i 


 

i


  þ 

K  ã


 


 















 








Remember that we¶ve used up almost half of the world¶s

oil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell curve, we
embark upon the decline.

6 


 
 





 





6

http://www.oilcrisis.com/
 The Hubbert Peak
In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models,
predicted that the oil extraction for the US lower
48 states would peak in 1970

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/
Ú any oil fields,
countries, and oil
companies have
already peaked.
Ú The US peaked in
1970.
Ú 53 of 68 oil
producing
countries are in
decline.
 m

 




  



 i

i
 
  
þ !" #$ 

pdapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000

If the world follows the US pattern:

«  




pdapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
 þ i
pi


i


m

 
 

 i 

Ú In spite of advanced
exploration
technology we are
finding smaller and
smaller oil fields
 We¶re 6



consuming 4 





barrels«  

 




³The Party¶s mver´, Richard Heinberg

 Ynergy Return
mn Ynergy Invested !"#„$

It refers to the ratio of:


 

 


 

 


 


 
 
 


 
 

 

 


 
 




 

 


 


  

³The Party¶s mver´, Richard Heinberg

Ynergy Return mn Ynergy Invested

   






 



 

˜˜

„ ßefore 1950 it was about 100 to 1

„ In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1

„ Now (2005) it¶s about 10 to 1

„ The Tar Sands have an YRmYI of about 4 to 1

³The Party¶s mver´, Richard Heinberg

Yxploration doesn¶t pay anymore

In 2003 oil companies Ò 
%&&&
 


spent $8 billion on 
  
 

exploration and  


discovered $4 billion in 





new reserves.*


'()

 

* Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 ar 2005

** John S. Herold consulting firm
þ i 

i
i








i

(

Ò


*







(





 
  
 
+&







 

(
  


,&



(
K
K 

pdapted from ³The mil pge is mver´, att Savinar

 p

  

 
 
   

     p 
     ! ! ! 
   "  !! ! ! 
 !  " " !  ! 
     ! " ! 
      ! ! !!  


     _  ! ! 
!   "    ! !
"    "   !"  
 _

 _
_    !"   
       " 
      
 
        
        !
        !
        !
        !
!         !
"         "
   "     "
   "    ! "
   "    ! ""
   "    ! "
   "    ! "
›

 




   
 
  
 
 
 

  












  


 



  
 
 







 

 



 

 

 
    

†
 , Ò


 Ò
 , 
  
   
 
 !"""# 
  $ 
%
  

³We¶ve embarked on the

beginning of the last days of the
age of oil.´

†
 , Ò


 Ò
 , 
  
ßritish Petroleum Statistical
Review of World Energy

³18 major oil-producing

countries are now past
their peak production.´

ßeyond Petroleum


i 



 




i 


i
 
K 
³ßy some estimates there will be an
average of two per cent annual growth
in global oil demand over the years
ahead, along with conservatively a
three per cent natural decline in
production from existing reserves. That
means by 2010 we will need on the
order of an additional fifty million
barrels a day.´
  
 



 i
i



 


i


i








i 





i



 
 |


|%
˜      
Y i

 | 









 


 mIL (1857)


K

( ((
(((
(( (((  ((

 
 þ

i



i  

 






 

.





   



 



 



-



 

. 







 



/



 
"




   
 

  
 
 
pi

i

Ú Farming ³is an annual artificial catastrophe,

and it requires the equivalent of three or
four tons of TNT per acre for a modern
pmerican farm. Iowa's fields require the
energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every
year.´ 1
K
  
          
 
 


    !"
  #      
 Fossil Fuel and pgriculture
Ú mn average, the food industry uses 10
calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1
calorie of food.
Ú For pork, it¶s 68 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate.
Ú For beef, it¶s 35 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate. 1

K
  
       
 Fertilizer Association of Ireland

ëi





 





 








i 






 i 

i


i


 i





i


i

 





i
  

i 
i



 
& 

  '%










 i

i





 i



 




i 

 

 i
 i


i 

 
 i 










i




i




i


i




i  







i 
 This graph
shows that GDP
increases when
oil production
(energy)
increases.

In other words,
economic growth
requires growth
of energy supply.
We will soon reach the point where we
can¶t pump out enough to keep up with
demand.
 â mil is so versatile«
The petrochemical industry can refine oil into many
different fuels and products.

Gas
Naphtha
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
Lubricants

http://science.howstuffworks.com
âincluding plastics, textiles,
pharmaceuticals etc..
âTourism only exists because
cheap oil is available
 i

ëi
i
m


 


 









i 
i


 






i


 






  





 


 i

i







 
þ
 
i









 


  




i
p 
 

Dick Cheney as CYm Halliburton in K 

 December 2002, The ßßC

i
p 
 
 
 





ë



ii  




p
i



 



þi



p 

 



i


i





 
i



i
p 
i 

i
p 




 

þ
 




i p 

 


  i

 

i

 i





 


p 
 








 

 p 
Yp
Y Y Y
p



i







i
ßy David R. Sands
The Washington Times
Published ay 31, 2006

WpSHINGTmN -- p military strike against Iran's suspected

nuclear sites would have "catastrophic" effects on other Persian
Gulf states and on U.S. interests in the region and beyond, Saudi
prabia's ambassador to Washington warned yesterday.



 i


i




p
p  

| 

The U.S. presence in the Gulf of Guinea is

said to be a result of the U.S. Navy protecting Nigerian oil plants from
terrorists, Nigeria's The Guardian reported.
p report published in the Nigerian newspaper Wednesday said that the
U.S. Navy was patrolling the Gulf of Guinea, home to Nigeria's biggest
oil field, ßonga Project, to prevent the field from being targeted "by
terrorists and other maritime criminals."
 i
  
p
þi


 

i i
p  pp|

ùenezuela is beefing up its troop strength

along the Colombian border, negotiating
with Russia to set up arms factories, and
preparing for a possible invasion, the army
commander said Friday.
"We cannot set aside the possibility of a
military invasion on our country," because
its vast oil deposits make it a target, he
said.
 þY
Y m
Y þ

prctic Ice Cap, 1979 vs 2003

World Temperature History
 
i  
i 



i
  i
 








Ian Sample, science
correspondent
Tuesday ay 23, 2006
þ
i

ßritish efforts to combat climate change

have focused on preventing carbon dioxide
levels rising above 450 parts per million,
equivalent to a rise of 2C. If the world
warms by more than this, many climate
experts believe fragile ecosystems will be
pushed beyond their "tipping point",
triggering runaway global warming.
ptmospheric Cm2
 |


|&
˜  


 





Úp
V 
| 




 i







 

i

Ú 
i
 




 






Ú 


 
 i

i


Ú
 


 







i
  
i



i
  

 ii


-Tackle population growth.
-Impose very high levels of fuel efficiency for cars and
energy efficiency for houses
-Spend less money on roads and more on renewable energy
programmes and YY þ public transport systems
-Grants for domestic electricity generation
-p reasoned debate on the use of nuclear power
-Greater use of arable land for growing crops such as
rapeseed, sugar for ethanol, willow for wood pellets etc.
-ßuying locally produced goods where possible
 Which Future?
ad ax

Star Trek

Greenpeace
Thank You