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Factors:
y product complexity y insertion of reliability related-clauses in design specifications y competition y awareness of cost effectiveness y public demand y the past system failures
Table 1.
Common reasons for product failures
Wrong usage by the consumer Incorrect manufacturing Faulty reasoning
Solid state relay (commercial grade) Solid state relay (military specification grade) Single fiber connector Spring connection Terminal connection optic
0,0551a 0,029a
1800b 0,0134a
Poor understanding of the problem to be solved Unsatisfactory collection Incorrect storage data
0,1
9,987b
64500b
contact block
0,17a 0,062
0,667 1
5000a 0,0076a
Incorrectly stated problem with respect to basic principles Wrong or overextended assumptions Erroneous data
Crimp connection
0,00026a
Piston
0.0401a
a)
Use benign.
environment:
ground,
a)
a)Errors
per plant month (for pressurized water reactors). b) Errors per million operations.
2.1. Reliability and maintainability management tasks in the product life cycle
the concept and definition phase the acquisition phase the operation and maintenance phase the disposal phase
Developing failure data banks Analyzing reliability and maintainability data Providing adequate tools for maintenance Providing appropriately trained manpower. Managing and predicting spare parts. Developing engineering change proposals Preparing maintenance documents Reviewing documents in light of any engineering change
activities needed to remove the system and its nonessential supporting parts calculation of the final life-cycle cost calculation of the final reliability and maintainability values of the system in question.
Reliability allocation
Figure 1.
(3)
since at t = 0, R (t) = 1
(5)
(6)
(7)
(9)
(10)
Example 1: Assume that the failure rate of a microprocessor, , is constant. Obtain expressions for the microprocessor reliability, mean time to failure, and using the reliability function prove that the microprocessor failure rate is constant.
(11)
(12)
(13)
3.2. General reliability analysis related formulas Example 2: Assume that the failure rate of an automobile is 0.0004 failures/h. Calculate the automobile reliability for a 15-h mission and mean time to failure.
(14)
(15)
(17)
(18)
(20)
(21)
(22)
3.3. Reliability networks Example 2: A system is composed of two independent units in parallel. The failure rates of units A and B are 0.002 failures per hour and 0.004 failures per hour, respectively. Calculate the system reliability for a 50-h mission and mean time to failure.
Fig.3
Parallel network
let Fi= P(E1) for i = 1, 2, 3, , n for identical units (25) for constant failure rate (28) (27) (26)
3.3. Reliability networks Example 2: A system is composed of two independent units in parallel. The failure rates of units A and B are 0.002 failures per hour and 0.004 failures per hour, respectively. Calculate the system reliability for a 50-h mission and mean time to failure. Let
A be
(29)
3.3. Reliability networks r-out-of-n network The parallel and series networks are special cases of this network for r = 1 and
for independent and identical units
r = n, respectively.
(31)
(33)
3.3. Reliability networks Example 3: A computer system has three independent and identical units in parallel. At least two units must work normally for the system success. Calculate the computer system mean time to failure, if the unit failure rate is 0.0004 failures per hour
3.3. Reliability networks Example 4: Assume that a standby system has two independent and identical units: one operating, another on standby. The unit failure rate is 0.006 failures per hour. Calculate the system reliability for a 200-h mission and mean time to failure, if the switching mechanism never fails and the standby unit remains as good as new in its standby mode.
Bridge network
for identical units (38)
(40)
(37)
3.3. Reliability networks Example 5: Assume that five independent and identical units form a bridge configuration. The failure rate of each unit is 0.0002 failures per hour. Calculate the configuration reliability for a 500-h mission
Fig.5
3.4. Reliability evaluation methods Decomposition approach reliability of complex systems, which it decomposes into simpler subsystems by applying the conditional probability theory combining the subsystems reliability measures selection of the key unit used to decompose a given network efficiency of the approach depends on the selection of the key unit assumption that the key unit, say k, is replaced by another unit that is 100% reliable or never fail the key unit k is completely removed from the network or system.
(41)
Decomposition approach
Example : An independent and identical units bridge network is shown in Figure 6. The letter R in the figure denotes unit reliability. Obtain an expression for the bridge network reliability by using the decomposition method.
(43)
(42)
(47)
3.4. Reliability evaluation methods Delta-star method the simplest and very practical approach to evaluate reliability of bridge networks transforms a bridge network to its equivalent series and parallel form the transformation process introduces a small error in the end result
(50) (51) (52) (53) (54) (48) (48) (49)
Fig.7
(55) (56)
Delta-star method
Example :A five independent unit bridge network with specified unit reliability Ri; for i = a, b, c, d, and e is shown in Figure 8. Calculate the network reliability by using the delta-star method and also use the specified data in Equation (38) to obtain the bridge network reliability. Compare both results.
Fig.9 Fig.8
3.4. Reliability evaluation methods Parts count method very practically inclined method used during bid proposal and early design phases The information required to use this method includes generic part types and quantities, part quality levels, and equipment use environment. Under single use environment, the equipment failure rate can be estimated by
(57)
3.4. Reliability evaluation methods Parts count method Failure Rate Estimation of an Electronic Part MIL-HDBK-217 is used to estimate the failure rate of electronic parts better picture of the actual failure rate of the equipment under consideration than the one obtained through using Equation (57). An equation of the following form is used to estimate failure rates of many electronic parts:
(58)
(59)
3.4. Reliability evaluation methods Markov method powerful reliability analysis tool quite useful to model systems with dependent failure and repair modes widely used to model repairable systems with constant failure and repair rates breaks down for a system having time dependent failure and repair rates a problem may occur in solving a set of differential equations for large and complex systems The following assumptions are associated with the Markov approach: All occurrences are independent of each other. The probability of transition from one system state to another in the finite time interval t is given by t, where the is the transition rate (i.e., failure or repair rate) from one system state to another. The probability of more than one transition occurrence in time interval t from one state to another is very small or negligible (e.g., ( t) ( t) 0).
Markov method
Example : Assume that an engineering system can either be in an operating or a failed state. It fails at a constant failure rate, , and is repaired at a constant repair rate, . The system state space diagram is shown in Figure 10. The numerals in box and circle denote the system state. Obtain expressions for system time dependent and steady state availabilities and unavailabilities by using the Markov method.
(60) (61)
Fig.10
(63) (66)
(64)
(67)
Approach I: Letting time t go to infinity in Equations (66) and (67), respectively. Approach II: Setting the derivatives of Equations (62) and (63) equal to zero and then discarding any one of the resulting two equations and replacing it with P0 + P1 = 1. The solutions to the ultimate equations will be system steady state availability (i.e., A = P0) and unavailability (i.e., UA = P1). Approach III: Taking Laplace transforms of Equations (62) and (63) and then solving them for P0(s), the Laplace transform of probability that the system is in operating state at time t, and P1(s), the Laplace transform of probability that the system is in failed state at time t. Multiplying P0(s) and P1(s) with the Laplace transform variables and then letting s in sP0(s) and sP1(s) go to zero result in system steady state availability (i.e., A = P0) and unavailability (i.e., UA = P1), respectively.
3.4. Reliability evaluation methods Markov method Example Approach I to Equations (66) and (67)
(68)
(69)
(70)
(71)
3.5. Reliability allocation assigning reliability requirements to individual parts or components to achieve the specified system reliability. reliability allocation problem is not that simple and straightforward but quite complex Some of the associated reasons are as follows: Role the component plays for the operation of the system Component complexity The chargeable component reliability with the type of function to be conducted Approaches available for accomplishing the given allocation task Lack of detailed information on many of the above factors in the early design phase Benefits clearly understand and develop the relationships between reliabilities of components, subsystems, and systems seriously consider reliability equally with other design parameters such as performance, weight, and cost ensures satisfactory design, manufacturing approaches, and test methods
result of combining two approaches similar familiar systems reliability allocation approach familiarity with similar systems or sub-systems assume that reliability and life cycle cost of previous similar designs were adequate factors of influence method is based upon the following factors Complexity/Time Failure criticalityEnvironment State-of-the-Art the hybrid method is better than similar familiar systems and factors of influence methods
3.5. Reliability allocation Failure rate allocation method concerned with allocating failure rates to system components when the system required failure rate is known assumptions associated with this method: System components form a series configuration System components fail independently Time to component failure is exponentially distributed. using Equation (22)
(72)
(73)
3.5. Reliability allocation Failure rate allocation method The following steps are associated with this method: 1. Estimate the component failure rates i for i = 1, 2, 3, , n, using the past data. 2. Calculate the relative weight, i, of component i using the preceding step failure rate data and the following equation:
(74)
(75)
(76)
3.5. Reliability allocation Failure rate allocation method Example : Assume that an engineering system can either be in an operating or a failed state. It fails at a constant failure rate, , and is repaired at a constant repair rate, . The system state space diagram is shown in Figure 10. The numerals in box and circle denote the system state. Obtain expressions for system time dependent and steady state availabilities and unavailabilities by using the Markov method.