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Kensuke Tanaka Project Manager and Economist, Asia Desk OECD Development Centre
13 September 2011 Hotel Borobudur, Jakarta
Regional outlooks
Southeast Asian Latin American Economic Outlook Economic Outlook since 2010 since 2007 (*)Quarterly publication - This quarter in Asia
2
Outline
1 2
Medium-term economic outlook and evolving growth landscape in Asia Structural policy challenges towards inclusive growth - The case of Indonesia - The case of Thailand
Outline
1 2
Medium-term economic outlook and evolving growth landscape in Asia Structural policy challenges towards inclusive growth - The case of Indonesia - The case of Thailand
Near-term outlook: ASEAN economies show resilience (based on Q1, 2011 data)
Regional overview (composite leading indicators)
ASEAN average*
88 8 88 8 8 8
v o 8 N -8
v o 8 N -8
y a 8 M -8
y a 0 M -0
y a 8 M -8
v o 8 N -8 y a 8 M -8
v o 8 N -8
v o 8 N -8
y a 8 M -8
y a 0 M -0
(Source ) This Quarter in Asia, vol .5, June 2011, OECD Development Centre
y a 8 M -8
v o 8 N -8
y a 8 M -8
(*) Average of six countries includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Emerging Asia average includes Average 2011, preliminary results 6 (**)(Source ) OECD Development Centre, MPF-of six countries plus China and India. (please dont quote)
Evolving growth landscape (1) Domestic drivers will play a more important role: the way towards inclusive growth
Current account balance of six ASEAN countries
(percentage of GDP)
(Source ) OECD Development Centre, MPF- 2011, preliminary results (please dont quote)
Thailand
> 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 < 8
88 8 8
88 8 8
8 %
8 %
8% 8% 8 8
8% 0% 8 0
8 % F mle e a
8 %
8 %
8% 8% 8 8
M le a
> 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 8 -8 8 8 < 8 8% 0% 8 0
M le a
88 8 8
88 8 8
8 % F mle e a
8 %
8 %
8% 8% 8 8
M le a
M le a
10
(Source ) OECD Development Centre, MPF- 2011, preliminary results (please dont quote)
Fiscal challenges in the region Strengthening medium-term fiscal framework is critical Fiscal spending efficiency Mobilizing tax revenue
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Outline
1 2
Medium-term economic outlook and evolving growth landscape in Asia Structural policy challenges towards inclusive growth - The case of Indonesia - The case of Thailand
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Indonesia
2010-2014 Medium Term Plan 2011- 2015 2011-2016 2010 2020 2007-2011 The10th Plan 2012-2016 The11th Plan
Towards the realization of an Indonesia that is prosperous, democratic and just Charting development towards a high - income nation In pursuit of inclusive growth High skilled people, innovative economy, distinctive global city The philosophy of Sufficiency Economy (Vision of 10th Plan: A green and happy society, Vision 11th Plan: A happy society with equity, fairness and resilience) Renewing the growth model and restructuring the economy
Vietnam
2011-2015
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Structural policy reforms are needed towards inclusive growth: country examples Indonesia
Education (in particular higher education) Labour market regulation
Thailand
- Healthcare schemes - Education (urban- rural disparity, etc)
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Education in Indonesia
Enrollment rates from 1995-2010
(%, by level of education)
Urban- rural disparity in education infrastructure will not be a negligible issue disparity can be observed in both enrolment and literacy rates.
15
(Source) national source and OECD
Rigidity of labour market regulations - in particular, hiring and firing regulations need to be reformed.
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Healthcare in Thailand
Total public expenditure on health as percentage of GDP (2008)
Healthcare schemes need to reform to provide higher quality of and equal access to services harmonization of three healthcare schemes. Financial sustainability of the system will be a challenge.
17
Education in Thailand
OECD- PISA results in 2009
Urban- rural disparity - in particular, rural education needs to be strengthened through targeted policies.
(Source) OECD
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Thank you!
Contact: kensuke.tanaka@oecd.org