Probability & Statistics

PAKISTAN NAVAL ACADEMY
BASIC DEFINITIONS
STATISTICS The word statistics which comes from the Latin word status, meaning a political state, originally meant for information useful to the state.
Statistics defined as discipline that include procedure and techniques used to collect, process and analyse numerical data to make inferences and to reach the decision in the face of uncertainties. The word statistics refers to numerical facts which are systematically arranged. For example statistics of price, statistics of road accidents, statistics of births, statistics of death etc in all these examples the word statistics denotes a set of numerical data in respective field.
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BASIC DEFINITIONS DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Descriptive statistics is the branch of statistics which deals with the collection of data, their graphical display and computations of numerical quantities that provide the information about the data. INFERENTIAL STATISTICS Inferential statistics deals with the procedure for making inferences about the data. It include the estimation of of population parameter and testing of hypotheses.
BASIC DEFINITIONS POPULATION A population is a collection or set of all possible observation whether finite or infinite,relvant to some characteristic of interest. A statistical population may be real such as the height of college students, or hypothetical such as all the possible outcomes from the toss of coin. The number of observation in a finite population is called the size of the population and is denoted by N.
BASIC DEFINITIONS SAMPLE
A sample is part or subset of the population. Generally it consists of some of the observation but in certain situation it may include the whole of the population.
The number of observation include in a sample is called the size of the sample and is denoted by small letter n. The information derived from the sample data is used to draw conclusion about the population
BASIC DEFINITIONS
IMPOTANCE OF STATISTICS Statistics assists in summarizing the large sets of data in the form that is easily understandable Statistics assists in the efficient design of laboratory and field experiments as well as in surveys. Statistics assists in a sound and effective planning in any field of inquiry Statistics assists in drawing general conclusion and is making predictions how much of thing will happen under given condition.
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BASIC DEFINITIONS
IMPOTANCE OF STATISTICS Statistical techniques is being used powerful tools for analysing numerical data, are used almost in every branch of learning. Banks insurance companies and Governments all have their statistics departments. A modern administrator whether in public or private sector leans on statistical data to provide a factual basis for decision. A social scientist uses statistical methods in various areas of socio-economic life of nation.
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MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
INTRODUCTION
A data set can be summarized in a single value. Such a value usually somewhere in the centre and representing the entire data set, is a value at which the data have a tendency to concentrate. Since a measure of central tendency indicate the location or the general position of the data set in the range of observation, it is also known as a Measure of Location or Position. A numerical value like mean median mode calculated from population is know as parameter and a numerical value calculated from sample is called the statistics.
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TYPES OF AVERAGES The most common types of average are Arithmetic Mean Geometric Mean Harmonic Mean Median Mode The first three types are mathematical in character and give an indication of magnitude of the observed values. The fourth type indicates the middle position while the last provides the information about most frequent value in the distribution or the data.
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MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY ARITHMETIC MEAN The arithmetic mean or simply mean is the most familiar average it is defined as a value obtained by dividing the sum of all the observation by their numbers. Mean = Sum of all the observation Number of the observation
Thus the mathematically mean of set of n observation x1,x2,x3..xn is defined as Mean = Xi N (Where I = 1,2,3,n)

ARITHMETIC MEAN FROM GROUPED DATA When the number of observation are very large, the data organised into a frequency distribution, which is used to calculate the central value of given data. If the frequency distribution has k classes with midpoints X1,X2,X3Xk and the crossponding frequencies f1,f2,f2..fk then mean is given by the formula. Mean = f1X1+f1X2+f3X3+.+fkXk f1+f2+f3++fk = fiXi where (i = 1,2,3,..k ) N
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THE MEDIAN The median is defined as a value which divides the data set into two equal parts. One part comprising of observation greater than and other part smaller then the median. Thus the median of n observation ( n is odd) is the middle value of arranged data and the median of n observation (n is even) is the mean of two middle values of arranged data. Ex 1: Calculate the median from Marks obtained by 10 cadets in the subject of statistics are given below 45,32,37,43,42,39,44,38,36,35 Arranged Data 32,35,36,37,38,39,42,43,44,,45
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MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY THE MEDIAN Median (n is Even) = 38+39/2 = 77/2 = 38.5 For grouped data median is calculate by the given formula. Median = L+ h/f [ n/2 C] Where L = Lower class boundary of the Median group H = Class interval of the median group F = Frequency of the median group C = Cumulative frequency of the preceding group n/2 is to indicate the median group in given data.
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THE MODE The French word mode meaning is fashion, has been adopted to convey the idea of most frequent. The mode is defined as the value occur most frequently in a set of data that is indicate the most common result. A set of data may have more than one mode or no mode at all when each observation occur the same number of times. For Example 10,12,14,15,16,18,19,14 Mode = 12 18,19,16,17,15,13,14,10 Mode = No Mode 10,13,15,19,13,17,12,10, Mode = 10 and 13 (More than one mode)
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THE MODE In case of grouped data the mode would lie in the class that carries the highest frequency. This class is called the modal class and the mode obtained by the given formula. Mode = L + fm f1 *h (fm f1) + (fm f1)
Where L = Lower class boundary of the modal class Fm = Frequency of the modal class F1 = Frequency of preceding class to the modal class F2 = Frequency of following class to the modal class H = Class interval ob modal class
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION INTRODUCTION A measure of location, such as mean or median, only describe the centre of the data, but it does not tell us any thing about the spread of data. Therefore we need some additional information concerning with how the data are dispersed about the average. This is done by measuring the dispersion. A quantity that measures this characteristic (spread of data) is called measure of dispersion, scatter or variability. There are two types of measure of dispersion: Absolute measure of dispersion Relative measure of dispersion
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION ABSOULTE MEASURE
An absolute measure of dispersion is one that measures the dispersion in term of same units, as the units of data.
RELATIVE MEASURE
A relative measure of dispersion is one that is express in the form of a ratio, co-efficient and is independent of units of measurements.
DIFFERENT MEASURE OF DISPERSION The Range and Coefficient of Range Mean Deviation The Variance Standard Deviation Co-efficient of Variation (CV)
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION THE RANGE The simplest measure of dispersion is the Range. It is the difference between the largest value and smallest value of the data. Range = largest value smallest value = Xm - Xo Where Xm = Largest value of the data Xo = Smallest value of the data For example The IQ of 5 members of a family are 108,112,127,118 and 113 than the range of this family is Range = 118-108 = 6
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION MEAN DEVIATION The arithmetic mean of the absolute values of the deviation from the arithmetic mean. In term of a formula the mean deviation designated by MD and is computed by the given formula. MD = X - Mean n For Ungrouped data
MD = fX - Mean For Grouped data n
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION THE VARIANCE The variance of a set of observation is defined as mean of square of deviation of all observation from their mean. When it is calculated from the population, the variance is called the population variance and is denoted by 2 (Sigma) and when it is calculated from sample data is called the sample variance, denoted by S2. Variance is calculated by given formula 2 = (Xi - ) For Population data N OR 2 = Xi2 (Xi)2 N N
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION THE VARIANCE S2 = (Xi - Mean) n S2 = Xi2 (Xi)2 n n FOR GROUPED DATA S2 = f(Xi - Mean) f S2 = Xi2 (Xi)2 f f
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For Sample data
For Sample data

MEASURE OF DISPERSION PROPERTIES OF VARIANCE The variance of a constant is always equal to zero. Var (a) = 0 where a is any constant The variance is independent of the origin that is it remain unchanged when a constant is added subtracted from each observation Var (X + a) = V (X) + V (a) = V (X) + 0 = V (X) The variance is multiplied or divided by the square of constant, when each observation of the variable X is either multiply or divided by constant. Var (aX) = a2 Var (X)
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION PROPERTIES OF VARIANCE
The variance of the sum or difference of two independent variables is equal to the sum of their respective variance.
Var (X + Y) = Var (X) + Var (Y) Var (X - Y) = Var (X) + Var (Y) If k subgroup of data consisting of n1,n2.n3nk observation having their respective mean X1,X2,X3Xk and variance S12,S22,S32Sk2 than the combined variance is calculated by given formula. SC2 = n1[S12 + (X1-Xc)2 + n2[S22 + (X2+Xc)2+.+nk[Sk2+(Xk-Xc)2 n1 + n2 + n3 + + nk
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION
COEFFICIENT OF VARIANCE The variability of two or more than two sets of data is to be compared by using the measure of dispersion which known as coefficient of variance, abbreviated as CV. So CV is defined as the standard deviation as percentage of arithmetic mean of the data set, symbolically it is defined as CV = S/Mean *100 where S is standard deviation CV is a pure number without units so therefore it is used to compare the variation in two or more data sets in different units.
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MEASURE OF DISPERSION COEFFICIENT OF VARIANCE
CV is also used to compare the performance of two candidates or of two players given their scores in various papers or games
The smaller the coefficient of variation the more consistent is the performance of the player or larger the coefficient of variation the less consistent is the performance of the player. So CV used as a criterion for the consistent performance of the candidates or the player.
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FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION INTRODUCTION
The organization of set of data into classes or groups together with their number of observation in each class or group is called a frequency distribution.
The number of observation falling in particular class is referred to the class frequency or simply frequency and it is denoted by f. Data presented in the form of frequency distribution are also called the grouped data while the data in the original (raw) form are referred to as ungrouped data.
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FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION CLASS LIMITS The class limit is defined as the number or the values of the variables which describe the classes is known class limit, the smaller number is the lower class limit larger number is the upper class limit. Class limits should be well defined and there should be no overlapping that is the both limits of a particular class are inclusive in that class. CLASS MARK
A class mark is also called the midpoint and it is obtained by dividing the sum of both limits of class by 2.
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FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION CLASS WIDTH OR INTERVAL The class width or interval of a class is equal to the difference between the class boundaries. It may also be obtained by finding the difference between two successive lower class limits or between two successive class mark. CONSTRUCTION OF FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION The following are some basic rule that should be kept in mind when constructing a frequency distribution. (1) Decide the number of classes into which the data are to be grouped. There is no hard and fast rule for deciding the number of class which actually depends upon the size of data. The minimum number which are to be used is 5 and maximum is 20.
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FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION CONSTRUCTION OF FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION (2) Determine the range of the data that is the difference between largest value and the smallest value in the data. (3) Divide the range by number of classes to determine approximate width or interval of the class. In case of fractional result the next higher whole number is taken as the class interval. (4) Decide from where to start the class limits that is lowest class usually start with the smallest data value or some number less than it to make it easy for next classes.
(5) Determine the remaining class limits by adding class interval repeatedly in lower class limit. First we complete our lower class limits by adding class interval than the upper limit.
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FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION Example: Make a frequency distribution from the following data, relating to the weight recorded to the nearest grams of 60 apples picked out at random from the consignment. 106 107 76 82 109 107 115 93 187 95 123 125 111 92 86 70 126 68 130 119 115 128 100 186 84 99 113 204 111 141 136 123 90 115 98 110 78 185 162 178 140 152 173 146 158 194 148 90 107 181 131 75 184 104 110 80 118 82
By scanning of data we find that the largest weight is 204 and the smallest weight is 68 grams so the range is 204 68 = 136
Suppose we decide to take the 7 classes of equal size then the size (interval ) of the classes is 136/7 = 19.47 we take this as 20
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QUANTILES When the number of observation is quite large the principle according to which a distribution or an ordered data set is divided into equal parts may be extended to any number of divisions. This division of data set into any number is called the quantiles.Quatiles are of three different types.
QUARTILES
The three values which divided the distribution or data set into four equal parts is called the Quartiles. These values are denoted by Q1,Q2 and Q3. Q1 is called the lower quartile and Q3 is called the upper quartile.
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QUANTILES DECILES The nine values which divided the distribution or data set into ten equal parts is called the Deciles. These values are denoted by D1,D2D9. PERCENTILE The ninety nine values which divided the distribution or data set into hundred equal parts is called the Percentiles. These values are denoted by P1,P2..P99. NOTE
It is interesting to note the Median = Q2 = D5 = P50 Why?

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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY

EXPERIMENT The term experiment means a planned activity or process whose results yields a set of data. TRAIL A single performance of an experiment is called trail. OUTCOME The results obtained from an experiment or trail is called an outcome.
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY RANDOM EXPERIMENT
An experiment which produce different results even though it is repeated a large number of time under similar condition is called the random experiment.
The tossing of fair coin, the throwing of a balanced die, drawing of a card from well shuffled deck of 52 cards are the example of random experiment. PROPERTIES OF RANDOM EXPERIMENT
A random experiment having three properties.

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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY PROPERTIES OF RANDOM EXPERIMENT The random experiment can be repeated any number of times. The experiments always having two or more possible outcomes. The experiment that has only one possible outcome is not a random experiments. The outcome of each repetition is unpredictable. SAMPLE SPACE A set consisting of all possible outcomes of a random experiments defined to be a sample space and is denoted by letter S.
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY SAMPLE SPACE Each possible outcome is a member of the sample space and is called the sample point in the space. The experiment of tossing of coin results in either of two possible outcomes a head (H) or a tail (T) so the sample space for this experiment is S = {H,T} EVENTS An event is an individual outcome or any number of outcome of a random experiment. In set terminology any subset of sample space of experiments is called an event.
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY

SIMPME EVENT An event that contains exactly one sample point is defined as simple event. For example the occurrence of 6 die is rolled is simple event. COMPOUNED EVENT An event that contains more than one sample point is defined as compounded event. For example the occurrence of an even number when a die is rolled is a compounded event because for even number that event contains the three sample points i.e 2,4,6.
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY MUTULLAY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS Two events A and B of a single experiments are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint if and only if they cannot both occur at the same time. That is they have no points in common. When we toss a coin we get either a head or tail, but not both together the two events head and tail are mutually exclusive events. Similarly in the case of die all six possible outcomes are mutually exclusive events. A single birth must be either boy or girl.
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS Two events are said to be equally likely, when one event is as likely to occur as other. In other words both events having equal number of chance of occurring. When we toss a coin we get either a head or tail, but both head and tail having same chance (probability) of occurrence. Similarly in the case of die all six possible outcomes are equally likely events because all six sample points having same chance.
A single birth either boy or girl are equally likely events.

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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS Events are said to be collectively exhaustive, when the union of mutually exclusive is the entire sample space S. In tossing of coin we have two mutually exclusive events head and tail, if we take the union of these mutually exclusive events it becomes equal to the sample space of a coin. so head and tail are also called the exhaustive events.
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY EVENTS AND SYMBOLIC REPRESENTATION
VERBAL STATEMENTS
SET NOTATION
Event A AS Event A is Impossible A= Event A is Sure A=S Event A does not occur A = S-A Event A or Event B AUB Event A and Event B AB Event A and Event B are mutually exclusive AB = Event A and Event B are exhaustive AUB = S
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COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS INTRODUCTION
When the sample points in sample space is very large, it becomes very difficult to list them all in a subset.
Then we need some method or rules which helps us to count the number of sample points without actually listing them. A few of the basic rules frequently use in counting as unedr Rule of Multiplication Rule of Permutation Rule of Combination
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COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS RULE OF MULTIPLICATION If a compounded experiment consist of two such experiment that one having exactly m distinct outcomes and other having n distinct outcomes then compounded experiment has exactly mn outcomes. Outcomes = m*n when two experiment of m & n outcomes
For example: The compound experiment of tossing of coin and throwing a die together consists of two experiments.
The coin consisting two distinct outcomes (m) {H,T} and the die consisting six distinct outcomes (n) {1,2,3,4,5,6]. So total number of outcomes are m = 2 & n = 6 Outcomes = m*n = 2*6 = 12
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RANDOM VARIABLES
INTRODUCTION A numerical value assigned to each outcome of a random variable, keeping in view the interest of experimenter is known as random variable Mathematically we assign a real number to each outcome of sample space hence we state that A random variable is a real valued function defined on sample space. For example: Two coins are tossed than X be a random variable which shows number heads (Interest of experimenter) are appear so possible real value for this variable is X = xi 0,1,2
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RANDOM VARIABLES
INTRODUCTION A random variable is also called a chance variable or simply variate and is abbreviated as r.v. The random variables are denoted by capital letters such as X,Y,Z while the values taken by them are represented by small letters such as x,y,z. There are two types of random variables. Discrete Random Variable Continuous Random Variables
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RANDOM VARIABLES DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable X is defined to be discrete if it can assume values which are finite or countable. When X takes on finite number of values they may be listed as X = x1,x2,x3,x4,x5..xn Examples: Number of heads in coin tossing experiments. Number of defective items in a consignments. Number of Accidents. Number of births & deaths in a day. Number of cadets in PNA. Number of colleges is Karachi.
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RANDOM VARIABLES
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION The probability distribution of a random variable is expressed in the a tabular form by showing all the possible values of X with their respective probabilities. A probability distribution must satisfy the following two properties of probability. 1. f(xi) 0 for all I 2. f(xi) = 1 In other words prob. Of an outcome is greater than or equal to zero and the sum of prob. Of all outcomes is equal to one.
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RANDOM VARIABLES CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable X is defined to be continuous if it can assume every possible value in an interval [a,b] where a and b bay be - to + . All those variables which are measurable are lies in the continuous variables for examples.
The height of a person. The temperature at a place. The amount of rainfall. Time to failure for an electronic system. The pressure in an automobile tire. Width of a room.
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RANDOM VARIABLES
CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE The function f(x) for continuous variable is called the probability density function, abbreviated as p.d.f or simply density function. A p.d.f has following properties. 1.f(x) > 0 for all 2. f(x) = 1 (- to + ). To find out the probabilities of a continuous random variable we will use the concept of integration because integration is the process of continuity between two limits.
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RANDOM VARIABLES
CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE

It is noted that the probability of a continuous r.v.X at a particular value k is always equal to zero.
Why? Because probability for a continuous is measurable only over a given interval or limits.
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RANDOM VARIABLES JOINT DISTRIBUTIONS
The distribution of two or more random variables which are are observed simultaneously when an experiments is performed is called their joint distribution.
The distribution of single variable is called the univariate and the distributions having two or three r.v.s are called the bivariate,trivariate or multivariate. Joint probability function of two variable i.e X and Y are denoted by f (x,y).
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RANDOM VARIABLES
MARGINAL PROBABILITY FUNCTION From the Joint probability function for (X,Y) we can obtain the individual probability function of X and Y. Such individual probability functions are called marginal probability function. Let f (x,y) be the joint distribution function of two discrete r.vs X and y. Then the marginal probability function of X is defined as g(xi) = f(xi,yj) h(yj) = f(xi,yj)
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RANDOM VARIABLE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FUNCTION Let X and Y be two discrete r.vs with joint distribution function f(x,y). Then the conditional probability function for X given Y is denoted as f(X/Y), defined by. f(x/y) = f(x,y)/ h(y) Similarly f(y/x) = f(x,y)/ g(x) INDEPENDENCE Two discrete r.vs X and Y are said to be independent if and only if for all possible pairs of values (xi,yj) the joint probability function f(X,Y) can be expressed as the product of two marginal probability function.
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RANDOM VARIABLE INDEPENDENCE That is X and Y are independent if f(x,y) = g(x)*h(y) MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION
Let a discrete r.v X have possible values x1,x2,x3.xn with their respective probabilities f(x1), f(x2), f(x3)f(xn) such that f(x) = 1 .Then the mathematical expectation or expection or the expected value of X is denoted by E(X), is defined by E(X) = x1f(x1) + x2f(x2) + x3f(x3) +........+ xnf(xn) = xif(xi) where i = 1,2,3,.....n
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RANDOM VARIABLE MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION Similarly if the r.v X is continuous with p.d.f f(x) then expectation of X is denoted by E(X), defined by E(X) = xf(x) (- to + ).
In other words expectation gives the mean value of function X,that E(X) is also called the mean value of r.v X.
By using the rule of expectation you can find the expectation of any newly defined variable w.r.t your original variable. equally likely events.
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RANDOM VARIABLE
PROPERTIES OF EXPECTATION If a is a constant then E (a) = a. If X is discrete r.v if a and b are constants, then E (aX+b) = a E(X) + b The expected value of the sum of two any random variables is equal to the sum of their expected values,i.e E (X+Y) = E (X) + E (Y)
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RANDOM VARIABLE
PROPERTIES OF EXPECTATION
The expected value of the subtraction of two any random variables is equal to the subtraction of their expected values,i.e
E (X-Y) = E (X) - E (Y) The expected value of the product of two any random variables is equal to the product of their expected values i.e E (XY) = E (X)E (Y)
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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION BENOULLI TRAILS Many experiments consists of repeated independent trails each trail having two possible outcomes fro example head and tail, success and failure,rigth and wrong, alive and dead, good and defective etc. If the probability of each outcome remains the same throughout the trails then such trails are called the Bernoulli trails. BINOMIAL EXPERIMENTS The experiments having n Bernoulli trails is called the binomial experiments.
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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Let X denote the number of successes in n trails of a binomial experiments, it is called called a binomial random variable and its p.d. is called the Binomial Probability Distribution. Probability function of binomial distribution is P(X = x) = ncx px qn-x , x = 0,1,2,3n Where n = number of trails X = Possible numerical values of b.r.v. p = Probability of Success Q = Probability of failure
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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PROPERTIES OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION If an experiments satisfied the following properties then we will use binomial distribution. The outcome of each trail are classified into two categories called success and failure. The probability of success is remains constant for all trails and denoted by p. The trails are all independent. The experiment is repeated a fixed number of times.
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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION MEAN AND VARINACE OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION We can find the mean and variance of binomial distribution directly by using the parameters (i.e n & p ) of the distribution. If X be a b.r.v with binomial distribution b(x;n,p) then its mean and variance are
Mean = np and Variance = npq.

NOTE It is to be noted that the outcome of interest is called success and the other, a failure.
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HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION HYPERGEOMETRIC EXPERIMENTS There are many experiments in which the condition of independency is violated and the probability of success does not remain constant from trail to trail such experiments are called the Hyper geometric Experiments. HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION Let X denote the number of successes in n trails of a hyper geometric experiments, it is called a hyper geometric random variable and its p.d. is called the hyper geometric Probability Distribution.
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HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
We will use the hyper geometric distribution if

A sample is selected from population without replacement. The size of sample n is more then 5% of population N. The formula for hyper geometric distribution is. P(X = x) = (kCx) (N-kCn-x) NC n
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HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION Where N = Is the size of the population. K = Number of success in the population. X = Possible numerical values of h.r.v. n = Is the size of sample or number of trails. C = Is the symbol of combination.
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HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PROPERTIES If an experiments satisfied the following properties then we will use binomial distribution.
The outcome of each trail are classified into two categories called success and failure.
The probability of success changes on each trail denoted by p.
The trails are dependent.

The experiment is repeated a fixed number of times.
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HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION MEAN AND VARINACE OF HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION We can find the mean and variance of hypergeometric distribution directly by using the parameters (i.e N, n & k ) of the distribution. If X be a h.r.v with hyper geometric distribution h(x; N,n,k) then its mean and variance are Mean = np Variance = npq *N-n/N-1 NOTE If prob.of success is not given then we can find it by the given formula. p = k/N and q = 1 k/N
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GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION GEOMETRIC EXPERIMENTS
When an experiments consists of independent trails with probability of success p and the trails are repeated until the first success occur, it is called the Geometric Experiments.
GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION If X is the number of trails needed for the first success then X is g.r.v and its probability distribution is called the geometric probability distribution.
It has only one parameter p and it is denoted by g( x, p )

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GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
Since a g.r.v represent how long one has to wait for success, it is also called the waiting time random variable. It is interesting to note that a Geometric distribution is a special case of a Negative binomial distribution when k = 1. The formula for Geometric distribution is. P(X = x) = pqx-1 where P = Probability of Success Q = Probability of failure X = Numerical value of random variable.
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GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION PROPERTIES If an experiments satisfied the following properties then we will use Geometric distribution. The outcome of each trail are classified into two categories called success and failure. The probability of success is remains constant for all trails and denoted by p. The trails are all independent. The experiment is repeated a variable number of times until the first success is obtained.
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GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION MEAN AND VARINACE OF GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION We can find the mean and variance of Geometric distribution directly by using the parameters (i.e p ) of the distribution. If X be a g.r.v with Geometric distribution g(x;p) then its mean and variance are Mean = 1/p Variance = q/p2
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION SAMPLING
Sampling is techniques which is used to collect the information and on the basis of this information draw the inference about population.
Sampling is also defined as the process of selecting the sample from the population is known as sampling. POPULATION A population is defined as the aggregate or totality of all individual members of our variable of interest.
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION SAMPLE A selecting part of population is called the sample or we can say sample is the subset of population. Sampling Unit The individual members of population are called the sampling unit or simply unit. SAMPLE SIZE A set of n sampling units selected from a given population is called a sample of size n and the process of selecting a sample is known as sampling.
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION

TYPES OF POPULATION Infinite Population Finite population Sampled population Target population POPULATION SIZE The total number of units in finite population is called the size of population and it is denoted by N. ADVANTAGESOF SAMPLING
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SAMPLE DESIGN & SAMPLE SURVEY A sample design is a statistical plan concerned with all basic steps taken in the selection of sample and estimations procedure. When a Survey is carried out by sampling method is called the sample survey. The main steps in a sample survey are Clearly define the objective of survey. Clearly define the population which going to be studied. Contrast the sampling frame. Choose a appropriate sample size n. Summarize and analyse the data
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TYPES OF SAMPLING There are two types of sampling Probability Sampling. Non-Probability Sampling. PROBABILITY SAMPLING When each unit in population has a known non zero (not necessarily equal) probability of its being included in the sample, the sampling is said to be probability sampling. The probability sampling is also called the random sapling.
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION PROBABILITY SAMPLING The major types of probability sampling are. Simple random sampling (SRS). Stratified random sampling. Systematic random sampling. Cluster sampling. Multistage sampling. Multiphase Sampling.
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING
Non-Prob. Sampling is a process the personal judgement determines which units of population are selected for sample.
Non-probability sampling is also known as non-random sampling. Major types of non random sampling are Purposive sampling. Quota sampling.
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SAMPLING WITH REPLACEMENT Sampling is said to be with replacement when from a finite population a sampling unit is drawn, observed and then returned to the population before next selection. The population in this case remains the same and a sampling unit might be selected more than once. SAMPLING WITHOUT REPLACEMENT Sampling is said to be without replacement when a sampling unit is chosen and not returned to the population after it has been observed.
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SAMPLING WITHOUT REPLACEMENT

Here the sampling unit cannot be selected again for the sample because the units drawn are not replaced.
When sampling is performed with replacement a finite population can theoretically be considered as an infinite population Why?
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER A numerical value such as mean, median or mode which is calculated from the population is known as parameter. STATISTICS A numerical value such as mean, median or mode which is calculated from the sample is known as statistics.
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
A sampling distribution is defined as a probability distribution of the values of a statistics such mean, median etc computed from all possible samples which might be selected with or without replacement from population. A sampling distribution of a statistics is a probability distribution therefore the sum of all probabilities in it always equal to one.
There are many types of sampling distribution but the most frequently used types in statistical inference are
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION Binomial Distribution Normal Distribution T- Distribution F- Distribution Z Distribution Chi Square Distribution
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STANDARD ERROR
The standard deviation of a sampling distribution of a sample statistics is called the standard error of statistics and it denoted by S.E.
The standard error thus measure the dispersion of the values of statistics. SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN The sampling distribution of mean is the probability or relative frequency distribution of the means X of all possible samples drawn from the population.
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SAMPLING & SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN The mean of this distribution is denoted by and standard deviation which is called the standard error of mean by . PROPERTIES OF SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN 1.The mean of the sampling distribution is equal to the population mean regardless of weather sampling is done by with or without replacement. i.e =
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PROPERTIES OF SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN
2.The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean is With replacement Without replacement 3.If the population sampled is normally distributed then the sampling distribution of mean will also be the normally distributed
4.If the population sampled is non normal but sample size is large then the sampling distribution of mean will approximate the normal distribution.
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS

Suppose we have two large population with means 1 2 1 respectively. Let the random samples of sizes n1 and n2 selected from the respective population. Then the differences between the means of all possible pairs of sample be computed.
Probability distribution of differences of means can be obtained and such distribution is called the sampling distribution of differences of means.
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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS Two events are said to be equally likely, when one event is as likely to occur as other. In other words both events having equal number of chance of occurring. When we toss a coin we get either a head or tail, but both head and tail having same chance (probability) of occurrence. Similarly in the case of die all six possible outcomes are equally likely events because all six sample points having same chance.
A single birth either boy or girl are equally likely events.

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Probability &amp; Statistics

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Probability &amp; Statistics

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PAKISTAN NAVAL ACADEMY

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BASIC DEFINITIONS SAMPLE

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MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

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MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

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MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

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MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

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MD = fX - Mean For Grouped data n

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For Sample data

For Sample data

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MEASURE OF DISPERSION COEFFICIENT OF VARIANCE

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FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION INTRODUCTION

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It is interesting to note the Median = Q2 = D5 = P50 Why?

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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY

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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY RANDOM EXPERIMENT

A random experiment having three properties.

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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY

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A single birth either boy or girl are equally likely events.

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BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY EVENTS AND SYMBOLIC REPRESENTATION

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COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS INTRODUCTION

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Probability & Statistics

Probability & Statistics