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TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS: BY ARVIND

THEORY: NEWTONS LAW AT EARLIER STAGE.

LAW : NEWTONS LAW NOW IN REALITY.

IN GREEK: hypotithenai. MEANING : put under" or "to suppose. MATHEMATICAL: Hypothesis refers to a clever idea or to a convenient mathematical approach that simplifies cumbersome calculations A hypothesis can be disproven, but not proven to be true. A hypothesis is an educated guess, based on observation.

Deciding the characteristics of the population from the sample study is very critical. Risk involved taking wrong decision. Example : new drug either for blood pressure or inducing sleep. Modern theory of probability decision making. Statics criteria fixing for probability. Testing of hypothesis. J.Neyman and E.S.Pearson sample size known. Abraham Wald: sample size is not fixed (Sequential Testing).

A statistical hypothesis is some assumption or statement which may or may not be true, about a population or equivalently about the probability distribution characterizing the given population, which we want to test on the basis of the evidence from a random sample. Simple population: completely specifies the population. Composite : partially specifies the population.

Consider a sampling from normal population. N ( , 2 ). Simple: H: =0 and Composite:


i. ii. iii.
2

iv.
v.

=0 2= 2 0 < 0 2 > 2 0 And so on.

Acceptance or rejection test result.

Sample statistic possible could differ from hypothetical sample parameter or from another sample value. The assessment is termed as significance of tests. Large sample size Normal test of significance. Small sample size Exact sample test of significance.

Random sampling result makes the test of significance valid for us. Set a hypothesis definite statement about the population parameter(s). This hypothesis is NULL HYPOTHESIS. Null hypothesis is the hypothesis which is tested for possible rejection under the assumption that it is true Denoted by H0.

Any hypothesis which is complementary to the null hypothesis is called an alternative hypothesis. Denoted by H1.
If H0 : = 0.

Then H1 should be
H1 : = 0. H1 : = 0. H1 : = 0.

The acceptance or rejection of H0 is meaningful only when tested against rival hypothesis.

There is a involved in arriving the decision to accept or reject a null hypothesis. The possible answers are:

Two types of errors:


Reject H0 when actually it is not true. Accept the H0 when it is true. Reject H0 when it is true. Accept H0 when it is false. The error of rejecting H0 when H0 is true - type 1 error. The error of H0 accepting when H0 is false type 2 error.

P[ reject H0 when it is true] = p[ type 1 error] = . P[ Accept H0 when it is wrong] = p[type 2 error] = . Example: Inspection of the quality of a product. (Industry) = P[rejecting a good lot]. =P[accepting the bad lot]. Which we can minimize: or .

= P[ Type 2 error] = P[ accepting H0 when H0 is false or H1 is true] . Now P[ accept H0 when ho is wrong] + P[reject H0 when H0 is true] =1 P[accept H0 when H0 is true ] =

1 P[ reject H0 when H0 is wrong].

=1 This is power of test.

The maximum size of type 1 error, which we are prepared to risk is known as the level of significance. Generally it will be = 5% or 95 %. = 0.05 or 0.95. Confidence coefficient = 1-

For example take several samples of the same size from a given population and compute some statistic. (say mean). Let t1,t2..tk be the value of the statistic for this sample. Some value may lead to rejection of Ho and some lead to accept of Ho. The statistic which lead to rejection of Ho gives us a region called Critical Region (C) or Rejection Region ( R). The statistic which lead to acceptance of Ho give us a region called Acceptance Region (A).

The sizes of type 1 and type 2 error are


= p[ rejecting Ho when Ho is true] = p[ rejecting Ho / Ho] = p [t C/ Ho]

= p[ accepting Ho when Ho is wrong] = p[ accepting Ho when H1 is true] = p[accepting Ho / H1 is true] = p[t A/ Ho]

i. ii. iii. iv.

In order to test whether a coin is perfect, it is tossed 5 times. The null hypothesis of perfectness of the coin is accepted if and only if atmost 3 heads are obtained. Then the power of the test corresponding to alternative hypothesis that probability of head is 0.4 Choose: 272/3152. 2853/3152. 56/3152. None of these above