TECHNIQUES FOR SCANNING

TREND ANALYSIS Is a quantitative approach that attempts to forecast future personnel needs based on extrapolating information from historical changes in one or more organizational indices

TECHNIQUES
INDEX / TREND ANALYSIS Historical relationship between an operational business index and the number of employees required by the organization (demand for labour)

 Operational Index:
Sales level Number of units produced Number of clients serviced Production hours

Steps to conducting Index / Trend Analysis

1.0 SELECT THE APPROPRIATE BUSINESS / OPERATIONAL INDEX
Direct influence on the organizational demand for labour Subjected to future forecasting as a result of the normal business planning process

 2.0 TRACK THE BUSINESS INDEX OVER TIME

At least four to five years to record the quantitative or numerical levels of the index over time

 3.0 TRACK THE WORKFORCE SIZE OVER TIME

Record the historical figures of the total number of employees for exactly the same period used for the business index

 4.0 CALCULATE THE AVERAGE RATIO OF THE BUSINESS INDEX TO THE WORKFORCE SIZE
Ratio of the number of employees required for each lakh of sales = Level of sales / number of employees (each year) Employee requirement ratio

 5.0 CALCULATE THE FORECASTED DEMAND FOR LABOUR

EXPERT FORECASTS
Organizations own line managers Organizations HR & Business Planning Staffs Business Consultants / Financial Analysts / University Researchers / industry spokespersons Governmental ministries

DELPHI TECHNIQUE
Delphi technique is a carefully designed program of sequential individual interrogations (usually conducted through questionnaires) interspersed with information feedback on the opinions expressed by other participants in previous rounds.

Six steps used in Delphi technique for HR Demand forecasting

Define & Refine the Issue or Question Identify the Experts, terms & time horizon Orient the Experts Issue the First Round Questionnaire Issue the First Round Questionnaire summary and the Second Round of Questionnaires Continue Issuing Questionnaires

NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE

1. DEFINE & REFINE THE ISSUE OR QUESTION & THE RELEVANT TIME HORIZON Eg. What will Printomagic Ltd.s demand for manpower in a particular category be in the year 2015? Please provide your demand estimate & the explicit assumptions and rationale supporting your forecast.

2. Select the Experts 3. Issue the HR Demand Statement to the Experts 4. Apply Expert Knowledge, state assumptions and prepare an estimate 5. Meet face to face 6. Discuss the demand estimates & assumptions 7. Vote secretly to determine the expert demand assessment

HR BUDGETS : Staffing or Manning Table

HR budgets are quantitative, operational or short-run, demand estimates that contain the number & types of personnel required by the organization as a whole for each sub-unit, division or department It contains information related to a specific set of operational assumptions or levels of activity.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression analysis is a very effective quantitative forecasting technique for short, medium and long-range time horizons and can be easily updated and changed.