Travel Patterns and Trends (chapter 2)

Ouz Benice THS 52131 Introduction To Tourism Industry Fall 2005

Introduction

International and regional travel trends such as 1. visitor arrivals 2. tourism receipts 3. top destinations 4. tourism expenditures ...will be examined in this chapter.

Introduction

The understanding of trends is important as they provide an indication to what is likely to occur in the future for planning and marketing a touristic destination. External factors including political, demographic, social and technological changes will also be considered.

Tourism Growth Domestic & International Tourism

The WTO estimates that the scale of world domestic tourism far exceeds that of world international tourism. In 1995...

Total domestic tourist arrivals Total international tourist arrivals

5.6 billion 567 million

Tourism Growth Total International Arrivals

The Boom in international tourist arrivals around the globe is relatively new. Statistics & projects:

1950 1970 2000 2020

25 million people 160 million people 702 million people 1.600 million people

Tourism Growth Top 15 Tourism Destination in 2001

Rank
1 2

Destinations
France Spain

Number of Arrivals Share

77 million people 49 million people 11% 7,1%

3
4 5

United States
Italy China Russan Fed. Mexico

45 million people
41 million people 33 million people 22 million people 20 million people

6,6%
5,6% 4,8%

6
7 8

United Kingdom 23 million people

3,3%
3% 2,9%

Tourism Growth Top 15 Tourism Destination in 2001

Rank 9 10 11 12 Destinations Canada Austria Germany Hungary Number of Arrivals 19 million people 18 million people 18 million people 15 million people Share 2,8% 2,6% 2,6% 2,2%

13
14 15

Poland
Hong Kong Greece

15 million people
13 million people 13 million people

2,2%
2% 2%

Tourism Growth Top 15 Tourism Earners in 2001

Rank
1 2 3 4 5

Destinations
United States Spain France Italy China

Receipts
$80.7 $36.7 $33.5 $29.0 $19.9

6
7 8

United Kingdom
Germany Canada

$19.0
$18.0 $19.9

Tourism Growth Top 15 Tourism Earners in 2001

Rank Destinations
09 10 11 12 13 14 Austria Greece Australia Mexico Turkey Switzerland

Receipts
$15.0 $12.0 $11.0 $11.0 $9.0 $9.0

15

Singapore

$9.0

Tourism Growth Top 15 Tourism Spenders in 2001

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Destinations United States Germany Japan France Expenditure 70 US$ Billion 45 US$ Billion 30 US$ Billion 17 US$ Billion

United Kingdom 35 US$ Billion

6
7 8

Italy
China Netherland

15 US$ Billion
13 US$ Billion 12 US$ Billion

Tourism Growth Top 15 Tourism Spenders in 2001

Rank Destinations
09 10 11 12 13 14 Canada Belgium Austria Korea Sweeden Switzerland

Expenditure
12 US$ Billion 10 US$ Billion 9 US$ Billion 7 US$ Billion 7 US$ Billion 7 US$ Billion

15

Taiwan

6 US$ Billion

Tourism Growth Average Number of Vacations (2001)

Italy France Germany Brazil UK Canada 42 Days 37 Days 35 Days 34 Days 28 Days 26 Days

Korea
Japan USA

25 Days
25 Days 13 Days

Regional Travel Trends International Arrivals by Region Forecast

Region Europe 1995 337 2000 400 2010 525 Annual Growth 3.1%

East Asia/Pacific
Americas Africa Middle East South Asia World

84
112 19 11 4 567

115
120 28 23 6 692

229
195 37 26 11 1.023

7.6%
3.7% 4.6% 4.9% 6.7% 4.1%

(in Millions)

Regional Travel Trends Europe

As a region, Europe is the worlds number one destination. In 1995, the region attracted two-thirds of all international tourist arrivals.

It is also the leader in intra-regional travel: it is estimated that 80% of the visitors to Europe are other Europeans.

Regional Travel Trends Europe

Leading destinations are: France, Spain, Italy However there is a decrease in the growth rates of foreign arrivals, attributed to saturation levels and poor exchange rates.

As a sub-region within Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean countries, such as Turkey and Israel and central European sub-region will be in increase of arrival growth rate.

Regional Travel Trends Asia and the Pacific

The growth of travel in East Asia and the Pacific has been particularly rapid. From a region with arrivals totaling fewer than 100.000 in 1950, 7.2 million in 1970, 88 million international arrivals in 1995. The forecast shows East Asia and the Pacific moving ahead of the Americas, ranking second in 2010.

Regional Travel Trends Asia and the Pacific

Top destinations include China, Hong Kong, Singapore. Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam will continue to grow as well.

China has the potential to be a particularly rich source of outbound travelers, with its rapidly expanding economy.

Regional Travel Trends South Asia

South Asia region has made impressive development in recent years, starting at a smaller base. The region is compromised of India, Sri Lanka, Maldives (based on its beach resorts), Nepal (which offers special interest tourism), ran, Bangladesh. Since 1993, the regional growth rate was three times higher than the world average.

Regional Travel Trends Americas

The USA and Canada, like western Europe have reached their peak, meaning that growth for outbound tourism will slow. Intra-regional tourism dominates: In 1995, 75% of total arrivals were intra regional tourist flows. Cuba & Mexico experienced the quickest growth rate of all the countries of the Americas.

Regional Travel Trends Middle East

The Middle East was the fastest growing region for 1995. Top destinations include Egypt and also Jordan, Bahrain and Lebanon.

Rapid growth was explained by a renewed interest in cultural tourism and an increase of political stability in the region.

Regional Travel Trends Africa

Africa is a problematic tourist destination: political instability, military disturbances, health apprehension have discouraged travelers. One exception: South Africa enjoyed growth in both leisure and travel business. For the future, Africa needs improving political stability.

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Monthly Arrivals

10

11

12

TOTAL

2003
2002 2001 2000 1999 1998

363
307 359 333 358 350

478
426 405 354 370 371

495
676 547 435 409 478

661
853 885 721 426 642

1142
1326 1232 986 690 987

1507
1458 1388 1.079 781 1.039

2123
1897 1777 1.525 931 1.145

2263
1900 1601 1.420 1.077 1.377

1866
1771 1440 1.365 873 1.164

1649
1420 1066 1.167 797 1.034

768
662 521 590 433 502

636
557 396 419 319 371

13.958
13.244 11.555 10.394 7.464 9.460

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Bavul Ticaret Development ?

Years 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Total

5849

3689

2255

2944

3039

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Where they come from ? (part 1)

2000
Germany Russian Fed.
2.277.502 1.383.110

2001

2002

21,8 2.884.051 24,8 3.480.844 26,3 13,3 1.430.039 12,3 1.658.699 12,5

UK
Netherlands Bulgaria France Iran Austria

915.285
440.290 381.697 449.545 380.877 320.582

8,8
4,2 3,7 4,3 3,7 3,1

845.536
632.975 540.452 524.170 327.146 360.363

7,3
5,5 4,7 4,5 2,8 3,1

1.040.228
871.560 833.848 522.808 432.224 376.995

7,9
6,6 6,3 3,9 3,3 2,8

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Where They Come From ? (part 2)

2000 Belgium Greece Israel USA Italy Others

256.881 218.670 312.304 515.090 218.785 2.357.535

%
2,5 2,1 3,0 4,9 2,1 22,5

2001 310.296 197.258 310.604 429.563 315.286 2.511.230

% 2,7 1,7 2,7 3,7 2,7 21,5

2002 313.436 280.307 271.024 247.837 211.069 2.705.996

% 2,4 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,6 20,4

Total

10.428.153

100,0

11.618.969

100,0

13.246.875

100,0

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Where They Stay at ?

2000 Antalya Istanbul Mula Izmir
3.300.959 2.420.541 1.351.745 481.617

%
31,7 23,2 13,0 4,6

2001
4.211.930 2.517.139 1.327.128 621.589

%
36,3 21,7 11,4 5,4

2002
4.747.550 2.699.131 1.944.295 650.739

%
35,8 20,4 14,7 4,9

Aydn
Others Total

422.741
2.450.550 10.428.153

4,1
23,5 100,0

448.599
2.492.584 11.618.969

3,9
21,4 100,0

197.626
3.007.534 13.246.875

1,5
22,7 100,0

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey How They Come ?

2000
% Tourist Arrivals 7.274.062 1.969.579 39.667 1.144.845 % 72,8 16,9 0,5 9,8

2001
Tourist Arrivals 8.459.592 1.965.698 55.814 1.137.865 % 75,4 18,6 0,4 5,6

2002
Tourist Arrivals 9.983.806 2.465.053 55.509 742.507

Air Land Train Sea

69,8 18,9 0,4 11,0

Total

100,0

10.428.153 100,0

11.618.969

100,0

13.246.875

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Why they come ? (part1)

% of Arrivals
2001 52,3 9,2 8,3 7,9 2,4 1,0 0,3 1998 49.79 9.86 5.73 5.91 2.17 0.55 0.25 1997 56.12 10.45 5.94 6.28 1.49 * * 1996 1993

Holiday
Culture Shopping Familly / Friend Visit Meeting / Conference Health Religion

50
13 4.4 4.5 1.5 * *

60
9 11 4 1 * *

Sport
Education Transit

1,3
* 3,1

1.03
1.06 0.71

*
* *

*
* *

*
* *

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Why they come ? (part2)

2001 1998 1997 1996 8.90 5.51 10 4.8 4.3 1993 6 3.5 2

Work Business Fairs

*
5,0

6.10
4.81

6.7
3.91

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey What Motivates to Choose Turkey ?

Price Discover Turkish People
% 25 % 20 % 19 % 15

General Interest for Turkey

Cultural Events

Cheap Shopping
Job Opportunities Quality tems Turkish Food

% 15
%6 %3 %2

Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Who Stays in Hotels ?

GERMANY RUSSIAN FED. FRANCE UK USA JAPAN AUSTRIA ROMANIA BULGARIA
31,9 % 10,4 % 7,4 % 5,3 % 4,7 % 4,2 % 2,2 % 0,5 % 0,4 %

Outbound Tourism in Turkey What is the Situation ?

DEPARTURES
1995 3.981.391

VARIATION (%)
15.52

1996
1997 1998 1999

4.260.701
4.632.876 4.601.349 4.758.211

7.02
8.74 -0.68 3.41

2000
2001 2002

5.284.336
4.850.029 5.132.664

11.06
-8.22 5.69