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Generate/Update Forecasts Run Data Collection Sales Orders
Generating/Updating Forecasts
Generate forecasts based on historical shipped sales orders data or issues to WIP (starting 3 months history) One year history for accurate forecasts. 1. Statistical Forecast 2. Focus Forecast Enter forecasts manually.
Focus Forecast
The following five simple forecasting models are provided: 1. Forecast=actual demand in same period last year. FD{t}=AD{t}last year 2. Forecast=actual demand in previous period this year. FD{t}=AD{t-1}this year 3. Forecast=(actual demand in previous period this year)+(actual demand 2 periods ago this year)/2. FD{t}=(AD{t-1}+AD{t-2})this year /2
4. Forecast=(actual demand in same period last year) x (actual demand in previous period this year) / (actual demand in previous period before same period last year).
FD{t}=(AD{t}last year x AD{t-1}this year) / (AD{t-2}last year)
5. Forecast=(actual demand in previous period this year) x (actual demand in previous period this year) / (actual demand 2 periods ago this year).
FD{t}=SQR (AD{t-1}this year) / (AD{t-2}this year)
To Choose best forecast method: APE=absolute percentage error for each calculation=(|AD {t-1}-FD {t-1}|) / AD{t-1}
Statistical Forecast
Calculates forecasts for only one coming period. Exponential smoothing forecast; factor ( alpha)
ESF{t}=ESF{t-1}+ x(AD{t-1}-ESF{t-1}+. ESF{t}= x AD{t-1}+(1- )x ESF{t-1}+SQR(1- )x ESF{t-2}+ Forecasts error=AD-FD (for each n where n=t)
To calculate ( alpha): MAD=mean absolute deviation=|Forecasts errors|/n Trend smoothing forecasts; factor ( beta)
TEF{t}=B{t} + R{t} where B is base forecast, R is tend index. B{t}= x AD{t-1} + (1- ) x TEF{t-1} R{t}= x (B{t}-B{t-1})+(1- )x R{t-1}
Data Collection
Request types: 1. Standard collection unscheduled Complete Refresh Net Change Refresh Targeted Refresh 2. Continuous collection scheduled Snapshot Threshold (%)
MPS
FCST
MRP
MRP
Workbench Actions
Actions view displays both recommendations and exceptions grouped as follows: 1. Late sales orders and forecasts. 2. Supply problems for late sales orders and forecasts. 3. Material and resource capacity. 4. Reschedules. 5. Item exception. 6. Shortages and excess. 7. Substitutes and alternates used. 8. Recommendations.
Gantt Chart