BRIEF OVERVIEW ON FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT AND MODELLING

Dr. A.K. Lohani

Scientist E2 NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF HYDROLOGY ROORKEE-247667 INDIA lohani@nih.ernet.in akl_nih@yahoo.co.in aklnih@gmail.com

Outline of Presentation
What is Flood Risk Assessment? Types of Floods Definitions of terms related to flood risk mapping and flood plain zoning, Approaches to flood hazard/risk mapping, Methods & Models for flood hazard/risk mapping and data requirement. Data requirement & Software

Flood Risk Assessment

Flood Risk Assessment provides information about the risk associated with the damages caused or losses resulting from a flood event in a particular area. Flood risk A combination of probability of a flood event Flood associated potential adverse consequences to economic activities, the environment and human health

TYPES OF FLOOD
Flash floods Single event floods Multiple event flooding Seasonal floods Dam break floods GLOF Floods due to drainage congestion

Definitions of Terms

Flood inundation map

Flood hazard map

Flood risk zone map

Flood plain zoning map

Flood inundation map

Inundation map during a flood event when the flood water in the river overtops its banks and leads to the flooding of adjoining areas or flood plains.

Flood hazard map

A flood hazard map provides information about the return period associated with the areal extent of inundation for a reach of a river.

Flood risk zone map

A flood risk zone map provides information about the risk associated with the damages caused or losses resulting from a flood event in a particular area or flood risk zone.

Flood plain zoning map

A flood plain zoning map categorizes various zones based on administrative legislations for planning and development of the flood plains for various purposes such as agricultural activities, play fields, industrial areas and residential areas etc.

Approaches to flood hazard & flood risk mapping

Geomorphological approach Historical approach Damage approach Remote sensing data based approach Hydrological-hydraulic approach

Geomorphological approach
For estimating the qualitative flood hazard. Maps based on this approach may not be reliable if embankments are present and raised markedly. More suited to relatively uncontrolled or virgin natural river basins.

Historical approach
Major floods marks may appear as silt deposits on sloping river banks and on trees, erosion traces on banks and around trees, and discoloration of structures. Information obtained from interviews/ literature and compared with the elevations of the high-water marks.

Historical approach
Soil types study to determine the historical floodplain. This approach cannot take into consideration the effects of future urbanization of a watershed on the runoff and inundation. It is impossible to directly determine the inundation areas for a given rainfall event if sufficient historical flood data are not available. Historical inundation data are best used for calibrating the inundation model.

Damage approach
It determines the flood damage distribution in flood prone areas by using damage data and inundation data.

Remote sensing data based approach

It can provide information on flood inundated areas for different magnitudes of floods so that the extent of flooding can be related to the flood magnitude or flood stages of the river. Inundation extent for specific flood return periods may also be estimated.

Remote sensing data based approach

The method basically consists of
Frequency analysis of flood stage of partial duration series and estimation of stage for various return period. Preparation of flood inundation map from satellite data corresponding to various stages used for frequency analysis. Development of relationship between stage and inundation area.

Remote sensing data based approach

Frequency Analysis
Identify some of the highest stage values of the observed river flow at the gauging site each year for a period of 10 to 15 years. Form a partial duration series of about 30 stage values for the gauging site carry out frequency analysis. Using the frequency relationship developed; estimate the values of the stages corresponding to various return periods.

Remote sensing data based approach

Inundation mapping
The flood inundation maps are prepared using digital image processing software like ERRDAS, ILWIS etc.

Remote sensing data based approach

Stage & area relationship
Develop the relationships between stages of the partial duration series and each component of the flooded area.

Remote sensing data based approach

Prediction of flood hazard area for any stage of river flow
Using the developed relationships the flooded areas corresponding to any stage may be computed. These flooded area may be marked on the toposheets by following the patterns of the flooded area corresponding to the observed stages.

Hydrological-hydraulic approach
It utilizes the hydrological and hydraulic models to simulate quantitatively the depth, area and duration of inundation. Maps based on this approach not only show inundation profile but may also be used to evaluate the effects of flood control programs such as river channel improvements, and flood water detention reservoirs, as well as urbanization of the watershed etc.

Hydrological-hydraulic approach
It is a GIS based approach for the development of a terrain model based on stream channel representation using some hydraulic model. Floodplain and channel geometry is delineated in a GIS like ArcView. All the model parameter for hydraulic routing of the floods are also defined/ computed in the same GIS environment. Calculate water surface profiles for the floods of different return periods. The results of the model are exported to GIS for the floodplain delineation and mapping

Data Requirement for Flood Risk Assessment & Modelling

DEM of the floodplain Floodplain and channel geometry: river centerline, banks, river cross sections Mannings roughness coefficients of river bed and flood plain Remote Sensing Data, Land use Historical gauge-discharge data Historical inundation data Administrative maps

Software for Flood Risk Assessment & Modelling

PUBLIC DOMAIN & COMMERCIAL SOFTWARE ERRDAS ILWIS ArcView ArcGIS Mike 11 Mike 21 Mike Flood HEC-RAS HEC HMS

MIKE 11
Flood risk analysis and mapping Design of flood alleviation systems Real-time flood forecasting Real-time water quality forecasting and pollutant tracking Hydraulic analysis/design of structures including bridges Drainage and irrigation studies Optimization of river and reservoir operations Dam break analysis Water quality issues Integrated groundwater and surface water analysis

MIKE 21
a professional engineering software package for the simulation of flows, waves, sediments and ecology in rivers, lakes, estuaries, bays, coastal areas and seas

MIKE 21..
a professional engineering software package containing a comprehensive modeling system for 2D free-surface flows. It is applicable to the simulation of hydraulic and related phenomena in lakes, estuaries, bays, coastal areas and seas where stratification can be neglected.

MIKE FLOOD - river and floodplain hydraulics

An integrated tool for detailed floodplain studies. Combines the two numerical hydrodynamic models MIKE 11 (1-D) and MIKE 21 (2-D) with a unified user interface Detailed spatial modelling where needed, plus the speed of 1-D calculations where appropriate. Ideal for many types of analyses such as flooding, storm surge, dam break, embankment failure, and more.

Software of Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)

HEC-GeoRAS HEC-HMS

HEC-GeoRAS
A set of procedures, tools, and utilities for processing geospatial data in ArcGIS using a graphical user interface (GUI). The interface allows the preparation of geometric data for import into HEC-RAS and processes simulation results exported from HEC-RAS. Water surface profile data and velocity data exported from HEC-RAS simulations may be processed by HEC-GeoRAS for GIS analysis for floodplain mapping, flood damage computations, ecosystem restoration, and flood warning response and preparedness.

HEC-HMS
Designed to simulate the precipitation-runoff processes of watershed systems. Applicable in solving the widest possible range of problems which includes large river basin water supply and flood hydrology, and small urban or natural watershed runoff. Output used directly or in conjunction with other software for studies of water availability, urban drainage, flow forecasting, future urbanization impact, reservoir spillway design, flood damage reduction, floodplain regulation, and systems operation.

CONCLUDING REMARKS
Understanding of flood phenomenon Use of GIS, RS & hydraulic, hydrodynamic models Need to develop flood risk map & flood plain zoning maps. Need to improve cooperation & coordination between different organisations for data collection & flood risk assessment

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